After students have read and studied this chapter they should be able to:

·         Define what we mean by public opinion, and explain its uses by policy-makers and interest groups.

·         Describe consensus opinion and divisive opinion.

·         Explain how public opinion is formed in the United States, including political socialization by families, education, peers, the media, opinion leaders, and the influence of events.

·         Specify the influence of education and occupation on voting behavior.

·         Likewise the influence of socioeconomic status.

·         Likewise the influence of religion, race and ethnicity, and geographical region.

·         Define and explain the gender gap.

·         Describe the flaws of early opinion polls.

·         Describe current sampling techniques, including random sampling and quota sampling.

·         Explain problems associated with polls.

·         Describe the trends in public opinion regarding trust in government and confidence in institutions.

·         Identify the major functions performed by the mass media in our society including entertainment, reporting news, identifying public problems, socializing a new generation and providing a political forum.

·         Describe the relationship between the First Amendment protection of freedom of the press and government’s regulation of the media.

·         Explain the media’s impact on politics, both on the impact in electoral politics and investigative reporting of the government.

In the United States and other democracies, people possess a variety of ways by which they can communicate their opinions to government officials and others. In turn, officials recognize the importance of public opinion, and often change policy (or have their positions bolstered) based on public opinion. While in some cases public opinion is clear and decisive, oftentimes it is murkier. In addition, public opinion can be shaped by the very policymakers who must also respond to it. That is, government officials do play a role in political socialization and often shape public opinion on a variety of issues.

I.         Defining Public Opinion

Public opinion is the aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of adults. Private opinion becomes public opinion when an individual takes some type of action to express an opinion to others publicly. We can look to the distribution of public opinion to determine how divided the public is on any given issue. When there is general agreement on an issue, there is said to be a consensus. When opinions are sharply divided, there is divisive opinion.

II.       Political Socialization

A.      Models of Political Socialization. Political socialization is the process by which individuals acquire political beliefs and attitudes. The interactions an individual has with others have a major impact on the formation of individual opinion.

B.       The Family and the Social Environment. The importance of the family is paramount in the development of individual opinion. Political attitudes begin to develop in children and the major influence on these early values is the family.

1.       Education as a Source of Political Socialization. Educational influence on political opinions is also important. Education introduces individuals to ideas outside of the home and outside of the local community. These new ideas may influence the individual to accept opinions that are different from those of the parents.

2.       Peers and Peer Group Influence These also have an impact on opinion formation. As people interact with others in school, or at work, or in social activities, various values come into play. These values can influence how opinions are formed.

3.       Opinion Leaders’ Influence. Leaders, both formal and informal, also tend to shape the opinions of the public. Formal leaders include political leaders like the president, governors, and members of Congress. Formal leaders make a conscious effort to shape the opinions of the public. Informal leaders may not necessarily attempt to shape the political opinions of the public, but they still exert an influence on opinion formation. Examples of informal leaders are teachers, religious leaders, and civic leaders.

C.      The Impact of the Media. The media also plays a significant role in the political socialization. The media presents information on important political topics. How topics are presented and which topics are presented have a major impact in opinion formation.

D.      The Influence of Political Events. Political events can produce a long-lasting impact on opinion formation. An important example was the impact of the Great Depression on people who came of age in t hat period. We call such an impact a generational effect, or a cohort effect. While it is likely that the events of September 11, 2001 will play an important role in the political socialization of young Americans, it is still unclear what this impact will be.

III.     Political Preferences and Voting Behavior.

The candidates and political parties individuals decide to support are influenced in part by certain demographic and socioeconomic factors.

A.      Demographic Influences. Demographic traits exert a major influence over the development of one’s opinion. 

1.       The Influence of Economic Status. Economic status and occupation appear to influence political views. On issues of economic policy, individuals who have less income tend to favor liberal policies, while individuals of the upper middle class favor conservative policies. On cultural issues the reverse tends to be true. Those with less income are more conservative and those with higher incomes are more liberal.

2.       Economic Status and Voting Behavior. The Democratic Party also tends to receive support from people employed as manual laborers and from union workers.

3.       Religious Influence: Denomination. Religious influence appears to have a significant impact on the development of political opinions. For example, the Jewish community is highly likely to vote for Democratic candidates. Irreligious voters tend to be liberal on cultural issues, but to have mixed stands on economic ones. A century ago, Catholics were often Democrats and Protestants Republican, but little remains of that tradition.

4.       The Gender Gap. Key term: the gender gap, or The difference between the percentage of women who vote for a particular candidate and the percentage of men who vote for the candidate. Since 1980 women have tended to give somewhat more support to Democratic candidates for president and men have given somewhat more support to the Republicans. Women have been more supportive of social spending and extending civil rights (the value of equality). They have also been more concerned than men about security in the wake of 9/11, however. Republicans have benefited from this and the gender gap in the 2004 election proved to be quite modest.

5.       Geographic Region. Presidentially, Democrats tend to get support from the Northeast and the West Coast. Republicans do well in the South, the Great Plains, and the Rocky Mountains. The Midwest tends to split (and sometimes decides elections). Even more importantly, cities are typically Democratic while the countryside in most places is Republican.

IV.    Measuring Public Opinion

A.      The History of Opinion Polls. As early as the 1800s, the press conducted “straw polls.” Such polls are not an accurate reflection of public opinion.  The Literary Digest conducted the most infamous of these in 1936. Franklin Roosevelt was elected in a landslide after the poll conducted by the Digest had projected his defeat. The Digest’s sample was not representative. In t he 1930s, however, modern, relatively accurate polling techniques were developed by George Gallup, Elmo Roper, and others. Survey research centers were set up at several universities after World War II.

B.       Sampling Techniques

1.       Representative Sampling. To accurately predict the whole based on only a sample, the sample must be representative.

2.       The Principle of Randomness. A purely random sample will be representative within the stated margin of error. For a poll to be random, every person in the defined population has to have an equal chance of being selected. The larger the sample of the population, the smaller the margin of error.  If a random sample, with a margin of error of + or - 3%, reveals that 63% of the population favors a reduction in spending for space exploration the actual number of people favoring such a reduction is some where between 60% to 66%. Making sure that your sample is random is a major task. A technique known as quota sampling may depart from the random model, and thus be less accurate. In quota sampling, researchers decide how many persons of certain types they need in the survey—such as minorities, women, or farmers—and then send out interviewers to find the necessary number of these types. Within the categories, the sample may be nonrandom and therefore biased.

C.      Problems with Polls. While random samples are usually accurate, there can still be problems. If the margin of error is greater than the difference between two candidates, the poll cannot indicate who is leading at that time. Polls are only accurate for the time frame when they were conducted. In the case of an issue in which public opinion changes quickly, the length of time the poll will be accurate will be very short.

1.       Sampling Errors. Key concept: sampling error, or the difference between a sample’s results and the true result if the entire population had been interviewed. Dangerous if the sample is too small or if the polltakers do not know how to correct for common biases in samples.

2.       Poll Questions. The design of a question can affect the result. Yes/no answers are a problem if the issue admits to shades of gray. Often, people will attempt to please the interviewer.

3.       Push Polls. Push polls are not polls at all, but are attempts to spread negative statements about a candidate by posing as a polltaker.

V.      Public Opinion and the Political Process

A.                        Political Culture and Popular Opinion. Political culture can be described as a set of attitudes and ideas about the nation and government.  Certain shared beliefs about important values are considered the core of American political culture. They bind the nation together despite its highly diverse population.  These values include: liberty, equality, and property; support for religion; and community service and personal achievement.

1.       Political Culture and Support for Our Political System. General popular belief that the presidential election of 2000 would be settled fairly is an example of how a general sense of support for our political system allows the nation to weather a crisis.

2.       Political Trust. General levels of trust in government have gone up and down. Levels were high right after 9/11 but were much lower in the wake of the Vietnam War and t he Watergate scandal.

B.       Public Opinion about Government.

It is clear that there is considerable ambivalence on the part of the public regarding government and other national institutions. Recent data suggests that trust in government peaked after 9/11 but fell back thereafter. Over the years, the military and churches have been the institutions receiving the highest levels of public confidence. After 9/11, confidence in the military reached new highs. Confidence in churches was hurt in 2002 by a series of sexual abuse scandals. Banks and the Supreme Court also score highly, while the media, Congress, labor unions, and business come off more poorly. Currently, the public rates the war in Iraq and the economy as the nation’s greatest problems.

VI.    The Media and Politics

A.      Entertainment. Many current political issues reflected in entertainment shows. While the purpose is to entertain the public, these programs can stimulate public discussion of important issues.  For example, the television show The West Wing often focuses on public policy debates.

B.       Reporting the News. In a democracy the public must be informed about issues that will affect them. The media must serve as the eyes and the ears of the public if it is to be informed about important issues related to the governing process.

C.      Identifying Public Problems. Identifying public problems occurs in two ways.

1.       Setting the Public Agenda. The media identifies public problems and serves as a forum for various policy alternatives. The primacy of certain issues follows from the importance that the media places on these issues.

2.       The Investigative Function. The media also uses investigation to uncover wrongdoing by government officials or candidates.

D.      Socializing New Generations. This occurs by the transmission of historical information that is important for the continuation of the political culture. This function is particularly important in the socialization of immigrants and of children who “learn to be American” through the transmission of values from television.

E.       Providing a Political Forum. Officeholders attempt to gain support for policies. Politicians use the media to generate interest in their campaigns, and voters also express their opinions through the media. An important example of this is the “letters to the editor” section of newspapers.

F.       Making Profits. Most of the news media are private for-profit enterprises. Making a profit is a major (if not the major) goal of the business. Most revenue comes from selling advertising. The price charged for advertising is based on the circulation (print media) or the size of the audience (electronic media). The dependence on advertising revenue can give advertisers undue influence. An alternative form is public broadcasting, but this medium is also dependent on subsidies from corporations and governments.

VII.  The Primacy of Television

       Currently the most influential type of media is television. 

A.      The Increase in News-Type Programming. In 1963, the major networks devoted only eleven minutes a day to national news (a 15-minute show minus ad time). Today that is up to about three hours. Many all-news channels are also available.

B.       Television’s Influence on the Political Process. Viewers can actually see news and history as it is happening. The collapse of the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center transpired live to viewers in the United States and throughout the rest of the world. It is very difficult for the print media or the radio media to compete effectively with this type of television. Most people indicate that their primary source for news is television. By its nature, TV news concentrated on stories that are highly visual. A subject like Congress is not very photogenic. Also, TV news may seek to impose a story line on events even when that is not appropriate.

VIII.      The Media and Political Campaigns

The media have a major impact on political campaigns Voters now receive most information from the electronic media, especially television. There are three types of television coverage employed by a campaign: paid-for political announcements, management of news coverage, and campaign debates.

A.      Advertising. Paid-for political announcements (advertising) are the most obvious of the methods to reach potential voters. Increasingly these brief messages are negative attacks on the opposition. While many voters have complained about negative campaigns, research indicates that such messages are effective. Even when advertisements are not attacks on the opposition, time constraints dictate that messages will be superficial and will not delve deeply into substantive policy positions.

B.       Management of News Coverage. Unlike ads, news coverage is free. Instead of letting the media determine what is important in the campaign, the campaign staff attempts to manipulate the media into presenting “news” related to the candidate and the campaign in a fashion that is favorable to the candidate.  This can be accomplished by:

·         Planning political events to accommodate the press (for example, a candidate stages an event early in the day to be included in the evening news broadcast).

·         Developing a good working relationship with reporters.

·         Convincing the media to put the right “spin” or interpretation on a story.

C.      Going for the Knockout Punch—Presidential Debates. Debates between the candidates offer voters the opportunity to see and hear the candidates in a controlled setting. In the past, not all presidential candidates were willing to debate. If an incumbent was significantly ahead of the challenger, the incumbent had nothing to gain by debating. Today, presidential debates have become such a fixture it would be hard for an incumbent to duck them. Typically, the way the candidates behave and hold themselves matters much more than the policy details that are debated. Debates do not always affect the outcome of an election, but sometimes they are crucial. In the first-ever such debates, John Kennedy appeared poised on TV, while Richard Nixon appeared sweaty and bothered. Advantage—Kennedy. Al Gore may have damaged himself in the debates of 2000 by appearing arrogant. In 2004, George W. Bush had developed a commanding lead over John Kerry in the days before the debates. Bush did poorly in the debates, however. In the first debate especially, his body language seemed to indicate that he was shaken by Kerry’s criticisms. Kerry, on the other hand, was calm and collected. After the debates were over, Bush’s lead was gone and the election was again too close to call.

D.      Political Campaigns and the Internet. In recent campaigns, the Internet has played an increasing prominent role, as candidates use Web sites to convey their messages as well as solicit contributions. The Internet also has been a useful tool for voters, with one study reporting that one-fifth of voters had used the Internet to obtain information about elections.

E.       The Media’s Impact on the Voters. A limitation on the media’s impact is that many viewers pay selective attention and mostly notice coverage that confirms their own beliefs. Also, the media’s focus on the “horse-race” aspects of the contest gives short shift to the issues.

IX.    Government Regulation of the Media

The government has far more control over the broadcast media than it does over print. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) exercises this power.

A.      Controlling Ownership of the Media. The Telecommunications Act of 1996 enabled telephone companies to enter cable businesses and other communications markets, resulting in the growth of media and communications conglomerates.

1.       Media Conglomerates. Corporate conglomerates now own all of the major networks.

2.       Reevaluating the Rules. In 2002, the FCC sought to relax the rules restricting concentrated ownership of the media. In particular, the FCC would have let one company own both the newspaper and a TV station in a given market. Opposition to the new rules was great and Congress swiftly forced the FCC to cancel them.

B.       Government Control of Content. The Supreme Court did not extend First Amendment protection to the cinema until 1952. The Internet received such protection almost immediately, however. Cable TV received broad protection in 2000.

1.       Control of Broadcasting. The Court has never extended full protection to broadcast radio and TV. Therefore, the FCC can ban “indecency” or “profanity.” In 2004, the FCC levied much higher fines for such offenses than in past years.

2.       Government Control of the Media During the Second Gulf War. The Bush administration was able to win a degree of favorable coverage by letting journalists travel with the troops as “embedded” reporters.

C.      The Public’s Right to Media Access

As a result of agreements with local governments, most cable systems provide public access channels that are available for free use by ordinary citizens. The courts have ruled that these broadcasts have full First Amendment protection.

X.      Features

C.      At Issue - Are Internet Campaigns the Wave of the Future?

The Internet is great for raising money and mobilizing activists. Attack ads on the Internet are far nastier than would be allowed on TV. The Internet is also a productive source of false rumors. One thing it is relatively useless for is get-out-the-vote drives.